Which Way?

You are a human thief named Babs. You have left home with a pack of basic supplies (bed roll, flint, fishing line, various fish hooks, spices, a beat-up metal bowl, a spoon, some rope, several knives, a lockpick set, and a makeup set). Your plan is to make your way in the world, but if anyone presses and you're in your cups, you might admit you were sent from home for stealing a neighbor's heirloom brooch (your fifth such theft, first capture). You've been on your own for two weeks following a river when it becomes clear that you've grown bored and want to put your brilliant mind to use in your next great caper.

You know that there are two large towns where you can find fools, jewels, and tools. Capricus is the closer of the two, approximately fifty miles due north-northeast. You know that there is a festival to happen soon. Strangers and chaos are the perfect covers for vice. Steren is a few miles further but to the south. Here, you know, is a thieve's guild headquarters where you could get formal training and improve your skills, but not much opportunity for brilliant capers because cities with a thieve's guild tend to pay for theft protection. Crossing the guild isn't worth even the prettiest of baubles.

Do you head north, south, or stay where you are?